Group: D — United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye

How they Qualified: Paraguay grabbed the sixth and final automatic CONMEBOL spot, returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2010. The turnaround under Gustavo Alfaro was the real story: FIFA says he inherited a team with only five points from its first six qualifiers, then lost just once in his 12 qualifying matches. Paraguay effectively sealed qualification with a 0-0 draw against Ecuador on September 4, 2025, then beat Peru 1-0 five days later to finish on 28 points.

Best World Cup Finish: Quarterfinals (2010)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $146.07 M

FIFA Rank: 40

Odds to Win Group: +425

Odds to Advance: -205

Odds to Win Cup: 150-1

Key Players:

  • Diego Gómez — Midfielder — Brighton (Premier League). Gómez is now Paraguay’s most valuable player at $29m, and he has become one of the key midfield engines in Alfaro’s side. He started the decisive qualifiers against Chile, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru, and his energy and two-way running are a big part of why Paraguay can survive without much possession.
  • Julio Enciso — Attacking Midfielder — Strasbourg (France). Enciso is the main source of individual spark in the attack. He is valued at $23.57m, scored in the huge 2-2 draw at Colombia, and won the penalty in the 2-0 win over Uruguay. If Paraguay need one player to create something out of nothing, it is usually him.
  • Gustavo Gómez — Center Back — Palmeiras (Brazil). The captain is still the backbone of the team. He started the key qualifiers throughout the closing stretch, and Paraguay’s whole defensive identity is built around being hard to move, hard to beat in the air, and comfortable defending their box.

Playing Style and Outlook

Paraguay have become one of the most clearly defined teams in the tournament. Under Alfaro, they are not trying to outplay opponents with flowing possession. Their recent qualifiers show a side that has mostly toggled between 4-4-1-1, 4-4-2, and 4-2-3-1, but the identity stays the same: compact shape, hard tackles, aerial duels, and quick, direct attacks once they win the ball. In the last competitive stretch, they played a 4-4-1-1 against Uruguay, a 4-2-3-1 against Brazil and Colombia, and a 4-4-2 against Ecuador and Peru.

The numbers make the point even more clearly. Paraguay beat Uruguay 2-0 with only 29.1% possession, beat Chile 1-0 with just 35.8% possession, and drew 2-2 at Colombia with 39% possession while still producing 21 shot attempts. So this is not a passive team. They are comfortable giving you the ball, but they still create pressure through set pieces, second balls, and quick forward runners like Enciso, Almirón, and Sosa.

For a U.S. audience, that opening match matters a lot because Paraguay may be the most uncomfortable stylistic matchup in the group. The U.S. will probably have more athleticism and more natural attacking tempo, but Paraguay are exactly the kind of team that can turn a game into a scrap: lots of duels, not much space, and a premium on avoiding dumb fouls and restarts around the box. These teams are somewhat familiar, having played a friendly in November of 2025 which the U.S. won 2-1 with goals from Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun. That game got testy towards the end with a scuffle on the sidelines, so expect this to be a hard-fought and chippy opening game.

Compared with Türkiye, who bring more technical creativity, and Australia, who are also rugged but with less individual talent, Paraguay feel like the team most likely to make the U.S. work for every clean look. That is why they sit only third in the group market, but are still given a strong chance to get through.