Group: D — United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye

How they Qualified: Finished second behind Spain in UEFA qualifying, then came through the playoff path with back-to-back 1-0 wins over Romania and Kosovo. Kerem Aktürkoğlu scored the goal against Kosovo that sent Türkiye to their first World Cup since 2002.

Best World Cup Finish: 3rd Place (2002)

Transfermarkt Roster Value: $609.6 M

FIFA Rank: 22

Odds to Win Group: +200

Odds to Advance: -400

Odds to Win Cup: 100-1

Key Players:

  • Arda Güler — Attacking Midfielder — Real Madrid (Spain). Güler is the player who gives Türkiye their highest ceiling. Transfermarkt values him at $105.6m, and he projects as the number 10 in Montella’s 4-2-3-1, with freedom to drift, create, and make the attack less predictable. For a team that can sometimes be emotional and chaotic, Güler is the player who can turn that chaos into actual chances.
  • Hakan Çalhanoğlu — Midfielder — Inter Milan (Italy). Çalhanoğlu is still the organizer. He is 32 now, but he remains the player who sets the tempo, takes set pieces, and gives Türkiye a real midfield identity. In this setup, he is the deep-lying playmaker who has to balance control with protection for the back line.
  • Kenan Yıldız — Winger — Juventus (Italy). Yıldız is the other young star who makes this team feel different from past Türkiye sides. Transfermarkt values him at $88.0m, and he gives them directness and goal threat from the left. If Güler is the creator, Yıldız is the player who can make defenders backpedal and turn a controlled possession into a real scoring chance.

Playing Style and Outlook

Türkiye are one of the more interesting middle-tier teams in the tournament because their ranking, betting odds and roster talent do not line up neatly. They are only No. 19 in this countdown, but they have two young attackers valued like future superstars, a Champions League-level midfield organizer, and enough technical quality to beat anyone in this group. They generally set up as a 4-2-3-1 built around Çalhanoğlu controlling from deep, Güler creating as the No. 10, and Yıldız attacking from the left. That is a pretty clean attacking structure for a team coming out of the playoff path.

The question is whether the rest of the team is solid enough to support that talent. Ferdi Kadıoğlu gives them a dynamic left back, and the center-back group has size and experience, but this is not a defense that feels completely locked in at World Cup level. They can be vulnerable when opponents press the double pivot, which matters in this group because both the United States and Paraguay can turn mistakes in midfield into transition chances.

The draw is manageable but not easy. Australia are probably the weakest team in the group on pure talent, but they are experienced and awkward. Paraguay are organized, physical and difficult to break down. The United States have home-field advantage and enough pace to punish open games. That final match against the U.S. in Los Angeles could easily decide the group winner, and it might be one of the more fun group-stage games in the tournament.

What makes Türkiye dangerous is that they do not have to dominate a match to win it. Güler can create one high-end moment out of nothing. Yıldız can beat a defender and change the shape of a game. Çalhanoğlu can decide a match from a set piece. That gives them more upside than most teams in this range.

The downside is volatility. This is their first World Cup in 24 years, and there will be a lot of emotion around the return. If they manage the moment, they will be a tough challenge for the USMNT for the top of Group D. If they get loose defensively or let games become too frantic, they could just as easily end up in a messy second- or third-place fight. That makes Türkiye one of the better “dangerous but not fully trustworthy” teams in the field.